To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. See the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Often, that makes a compelling argument for a challenger trying to unseat an incumbent. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. The share of white working-class voters has increased in Ohio since 2008, which could benefit Republicans, according to an analysis of census data by William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution. The Key Three States are Virginia, Ohio and Florida. The map of tossup states is likely to change, and it inevitably involves judgment calls. CC BY-SA 4.0 With just over six months until Election Day, an analysis of the emerging electoral map by The New York Times found that the outcome would most likely be determined by how well President Obama and Mitt Romney perform in nine tossup states. Republicans could also benefit from an increase in the share of votes likely to be cast by older white residents in Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The order of states … Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Florida tightened the rules on groups that register voters. To learn more about our methodology, click here. Now, with many of those states transformed economically and politically by the recession, they are perhaps even less predictable than they were in past close elections. In 2008, there was a consensus that six Swing States were in play near the election’s end, while there were 11 states in play in 2004. After Mr. Romney easily won five primaries on April 24, he gave his victory speech in New Hampshire, which held its primary months ago. Christopher H. Achen, a professor of politics at Princeton who has written about the impact of economics on voting, said that if the economy continued to grow at the current pace, Mr. Obama should benefit. While they all voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, seven have elected Republican governors since then and all have added significant numbers of Republicans to their legislatures or Congressional delegations. North Carolina, on the other hand, is ranked as leaning Republican, despite the fact that the Democrats have chosen to hold their national convention there this summer. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license: The following pages on the English Wikipedia use this file (pages on other projects are not listed): (SVG file, nominally 959 × 2,382 pixels, file size: 306 KB). The sample includes approximately 1,300 Likely Voters, and the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year. Romney leads by two in New Hampshire, Florida and Virginia. Republicans are also making inroads in voter registration. (Swing State Job Approval Data Below Table). Original file (SVG file, nominally 959 × 2,382 pixels, file size: 306 KB), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0 Several states have cut back on early voting. In several of the states, polls found that majorities of those surveyed believed that the nation was still in a recession. Ohio suffered a steeper than average loss of jobs during the recession, but it has since seen its unemployment rate fall below the national average. He’s up four in Colorado and six in North Carolina. And a range of economic data provided by Moody’s Analytics shows that all nine states are rebounding and that most now have unemployment rates below the national average. And in Colorado, the only tossup state where registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats in 2008, the Republicans have widened their edge. Other demographic trends are likely to benefit Democrats: minorities make up a greater portion of the electorate in Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia than they did four years ago; and the portion of white college graduates has grown in Colorado, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. The number of voters ages 18 to 29, a group that helped fuel Mr. Obama’s victory four years ago, is rising in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and Nevada. Most states are safely in the bag for either the Republican or Democratic nominee before the election even begins. These results are derived from tracking poll data collected for the seven days ending October 28, 2012. The presence of the Electoral College, an integral part of the Constitution, makes Swing States very important. Therefore, if one candidate gains a slim majority of the votes from a swing state, all of the electoral college votes are awarded to that candidate, despite the votes of the other 49% of the state's voters. Swing state (englisch für „Schwingstaat“) ist ein Begriff zu Wahlen in den Vereinigten Staaten, der insbesondere bei Präsidentschaftswahlkämpfen verwendet wird. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Two states, however, Ohio and Wisconsin, saw Democrats push back strongly after their newly elected Republican governors worked to curb the collective bargaining rights of public worker unions, which could have ramifications in November. In May 2012, the list of possible Swing States ranged from nine to as many as 21 states. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. All three are among the handful of swing states likely to decide who wins the presidential election — states in different stages of a slow economic recovery. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. As the general election begins in earnest, it is clear that the tossup states are a top priority of both campaigns and that 2012 will include plenty of stops for Philadelphia cheese steaks, Cincinnati chili and Cuban sandwiches in Florida.